Australia’s international higher education commencements are projected to fall by 4% in 2026, according to a new Studymove analysis based on the first six months of this year and current student visa trends. The forecast points to weaker offshore demand, tighter visa settings and a heavier reliance on students already in Australia.
Key facts
- Studymove projects a 4% decline in new international higher education commencements in Australia in 2026.
- The analysis says there has been no growth in commencements for four consecutive years.
- Offshore applications are down about 10%, while progression by foreign students already in Australia is up about 9%.
- Australian officials rejected about 21,000 higher education student visa applications from offshore applicants in the first six months of 2026.
- Visa refusals were mainly concentrated in India, Nepal and Bangladesh.
What does this mean for students and universities?
For universities, the outlook suggests that growth in international recruitment will be harder to achieve through overall market expansion. Instead, institutions may need to compete more directly for market share, especially as offshore demand weakens and many students progress within Australia rather than arriving as new commencements.
The analysis also says universities should plan conservatively for revenue, because fewer international students can reduce tuition income and domestic enrolment growth is not offsetting the decline.
Why are offshore applications falling?
Offshore demand is being affected by policy changes and higher costs, including a AU$2,500 visa application fee and stricter visa requirements. Studymove says these settings are discouraging more students from applying in their home countries, even as onshore progression within Australia remains comparatively strong.
How are universities responding?
Studymove managing director Keri Ramirez said institutions need a more focused recruitment approach, with deeper market understanding and stronger relationships in selected growth markets. He said the sector’s long-term strength comes from people-to-people relationships rather than treating education as a commodity.
The analysis also notes that while universities received more NOSC allocations in 2026 than in 2025, most did not reach their quota, and only five universities reached 80% of their allowance.
Frequently asked questions
How large is the projected drop in 2026?
Studymove projects a 4% decline in new international higher education commencements in Australia this year. The forecast is based on data from the first half of 2026 and current visa trends.
Which source markets were most affected by visa refusals?
The refusals were mainly concentrated in India, Nepal and Bangladesh during the first six months of 2026.
